Debate: The future of house prices

Laura Howard thinks we have reached the bottom of the housing market. But what do you think? Join the debate!

This month's house price report from Halifax showed average property values edging downwards in June by 0.5%.

Dry, boring, financial statistic - right?

Wrong. New stats on house prices are never just another set of boring figures. Not in this country.

As we all know, the subject of house prices and the property market has long been the cause of widespread furore in the UK. Dependant usually only on their own personal circumstances, some people get angry if house prices are going down - and others get equally angry if prices are going up.

Even cautiously optimistic housing market commentators, using bona fide data to support their argument, are slated on internet forums to such an extent you would think they had just mugged somebody's grandmother.

I would hazard a guess that some of the people behind these comments are would-be first-time buyers who, despite the crash, are still struggling to get together the greater deposit lenders require of them post-credit crunch. Or those who sold up a little too hastily to avoid negative equity (where your mortgage is greater than the value of your home).

But you can't please all of the people all of the time. We are hurtling towards 2010 (the year that many said would show the first real signs of recovery) - and I think those of you still crossing your fingers and hoping the market will fall even further than the 22% we have already witnessed, might now have to cut your losses.

House price data

Although Halifax's house price index showed a fall in June, it showed a rise of 2.6% in May, while Nationwide's house price index published last week claimed prices had risen by 0.9% in June and by 1.3% in May.

But for me, the most obvious sign that the housing market is entering recovery is the fact that more people are finally braving the waters by putting their homes up for sale. Estate agents have seen a 10% rise in the number of homes on their books since the start of the year, according to the National Association of Estate Agents.

Anecdotally, one estate agent from Coventry who I spoke to last week said that in January, people were putting in 'silly offers' and walking away when a vendor refused. "Now," she says, "they are putting in the same silly offers but sticking around and trying again when they are turned down."

So, despite the 0.5% fall this month, personally, I think the worst of the crash is behind us and the market is now rising up from its knees - or starting to, at least.

But, invevitably, many people disagree with me - including my fellow lovemoney.com writers Cliff D'Arcy and Ed Bowsher. You can read their arguments in A false dawn for house prices and The house price bust is not over.

What do you think?

This week, we asked property punters in London for their predictions in our brand new video, Your Two Pence.

And now we want to ask you: what do you think? What's your prediction? Are house prices set to fall further, or are we finally at the bottom? Take our house price prediction survey now to tell us your views... or join in the debate below!

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